It’s hard to believe it’s been 2 years since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. I figured that after the initial shock, the West would ramp up military support and quickly deal with the occupiers. However, that didn’t happen. Moreover, Ukraine is once again at a crossroads, with Iran, North Korea, and China providing support/weapons to the occupiers, while Europe continues to drag its feet, and the USA has fallen into inaction. I think the world is learning from this, and the unfortunate lesson is: the West is perceived as weak and easily disrupted. As long as a dictator can hold out, lobby, and flood the media with disinformation at comparatively low costs, any kind of crime will go unpunished.
Last year, Ukraine performed a counter-offensive. While expectations were sky-high, the results were underwhelming. I can’t help but wonder: how exactly was Ukraine supposed to perform an overwhelming counter-offensive in the first place? Let me break down my confusion: first, the counter-offensive was heavily advertised as if it were some kind of Super Bowl commercial at the end of times. I really didn’t understand the purpose of that. Then, Western weapons were delayed but finally arrived:
- About 14 British Challenger 2 tanks
- About 31 American Abrams tanks (but downgraded in capability)
- About 80 tanks provided by various countries were Leopard 2s
- About 88 tanks provided by various countries were Leopard 1s
In total, slightly over 200 tanks, considering I didn’t mention other variations of the Leopard 2, and I don’t consider the French AMX-10 RC as a battle tank. There was no aviation, no ATACMS, and a limited supply of long-range missiles such as Storm Shadow (Germany is still withholding Taurus missiles). Now, the list of shortcomings can be continued, but the picture is quite clear: 200 tanks versus fortified defenses and a few thousand Soviet tanks. Does that make any sense? But what makes me laugh (sadly) is the fact that Ukraine seems to receive, in bulk, only old tanks — for example, the Leopard 1. Really? Yes, it was modified in the ’80s, but… 88 tanks that were designed in the late ’50s.
So, to sum up my confusion: we give Ukraine old equipment and/or modern equipment in limited quantities and expect overwhelming results? I don’t know how this computes in anyone’s head. I really hope there is a winning strategy and that the West will eventually start acting as if it means it.
What gives me hope is the Ukrainian people who continue fighting despite the overwhelming odds. While some are at the front, others bring supplies, build drones, design new equipment, and more. This makes me believe that, at the end of the day, the forces of light will prevail. Ukraine will defeat this horrible evil.